Inflation will be above 6% in the 2nd quarter and should concern BC, says Ibiuna

 Inflation are going to be above 6% within the 2nd quarter and will concern BC, says Ibiuna

According to the founding partner of the investment manager, things of inflation has changed: from the danger of breaking the ground of the target, shocks have led the worth hike to the highest of the target

By Felipe Saturnino, Valor - Sao Paulo


02/04/2021 12h37  Updated 2 months ago



In the period from April to June, and maybe July, the accumulated inflation in Brazil should hit 6.5% thanks to statistical effects, "a trajectory completely different from what we imagined we might have 9, 12 months ago", says Rodrigo Azevedo, founding partner and co-director of macro strategy investments at Ibiuna Investimentos and former director of the financial institution, at the Valor live .


According to him, things of inflation has changed: from the danger of breaking the ground of the target, shocks have driven prices higher to the highest of the target. "If you're the financial institution, you've got to be far more concerned," says Azevedo. “It is one thing to possess inflation running at 2%, 2.5% and you've got tons of stimulus and miss a hand and inflation goes up 1 decimal point, to 3.5%. Another thing is that inflation is running at 6%, 6.5%, and suddenly there's another sort of shock that causes inflation to rise by 1 decimal point. Then you attend 7%, 7.5%. ”


For Azevedo, even so, this is often not a priority, because the memory of high inflation remains considerably present, he says, pertaining to past indexes and, also, to the spending ceiling, which is readjusted by the accumulated inflation of the year previous. After the passage of the statistical effect resulting from a comparison base of very low inflation last year within the 2nd quarter, inflation should hamper, and will end the year at 4.5%, says the professional.


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