Fiscal credibility and reforms are essential to resolve negative outlook for Brazil's rating, says Fitch

 Fiscal credibility and reforms are essential to resolve negative outlook for Brazil's rating, says Fitch

According to co-director of sovereign ratings for Americas at Fitch, some extent of observation is how the govt will accommodate a replacement round of emergency aid, if the proposal is approved




Fitch's sovereign ratings co-director for America, Shelly Shetty, said that maintaining fiscal credibility and moving forward with structural reforms is important to vary the negative outlook attributed to Brazil's 'BB-' rating in May last year.


“Our projections are for a dramatic reduction within the deficit, to 7% of GDP this year (from 14% in 2020), and that they incorporate an entire withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and maintenance of the spending ceiling,” commented Shetty during a webinar conducted by rating agency on the outlook for Latin American countries this year.


According to her, if there's an extension of the emergency aid, the deficit will obviously increase and it might be necessary to ascertain how the govt incorporates this within the spending ceiling. In other words, if the ceiling would be relaxed, if there would be compensatory measures or if the calamity law would be extended, allowing the entire non-compliance with the ceiling this year.

“There are several options for flexible roofing. counting on the actions taken by the govt, we might need to evaluate ”, commented the director of Fitch. consistent with her, during a case of fiscal lack of control, the financial institution might be forced to boost interest rates further, market confidence would be affected and this is able to all impact the recovery of the economy.



Regarding the new leaders in Congress, with the election of Arthur Lira within the Chamber and Rodrigo Pacheco within the Senate, Shetty says that it's necessary to ascertain how the new dynamic between the chief and therefore the Legislative are going to be. "If these new leaders have space to maneuver forward with reforms, this might help to stabilize the rating outlook, but there's tons of uncertainty," he commented, recalling that political dynamics are very fluid in Brazil which there are particular interests at stake, which may delay the progress of those projects.


(This report was originally published in Valor PRO, a real-time news and knowledge service from Valor Econômico)

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